This poll is whack just like the Newsweek poll that had Obama up by 15 or so.  Newsweek has become a joke.

Another poll out today had the lead at six points, and another just a few days ago had it at eight.

One poll may be an outlier.  I'm not saying you're right or wrong on the underlying issue, but don't cherry-pick.

Worse than cherry picking is taking any poll too seriously in July for a November election.

I would venture to say if anything has hurt Obama with the general population is his positions on energy. Now, I agree with his position on drilling. However those of us that do are in the minority, if you look at polls on drilling, 71% of the pop. wants to do it. They are buying into the argument that it will help.

The Newsweek poll was crazy last time, no reason to believe it here either. But it better be setting off little warning bells. In the last week, he's started good strategy. His two counterattack ads have been very strong. Taking Hagel to Iraq is a good idea (even if selecting him as VP is not). His ideas about bankruptcy reform and even about teaching kids multiple languages are solid (and the latter is an excellent bear trap, as demonstrated by Obama saying earlier that he can't understand why Republicans are opposed to our kids learning more things).

Of course, FISA negates at least half of that. If he had at least not voted to end the filibuster, I think I might be okay with it. But he didn't, and I'm not. He needs to fix that. Wish we had a way to get that message across.

Zee polls, dey go down!

I'm ignoring the polls, but watching the media?

If they JUST give somewhat equal footing, not obscess at everything Obama and gloss over McGaffes, we will be fine.

The polls will drive you crazy, we have NO idea what is going to effect them in the next 3 months.

are kind of meaningless.

its too early to be worried about polls , gallup shows him increasing his lead .

its all over the place

Bill Clinton would be leading by 15.  Hillary, by 10.  They'd both be over 50%.

Obama isn't giving anybody a reason to vote for him. His recent frenzy of flip-flopping doesn't look presidential.

Yeah, Republicans suck. Why is Obama any better? He'd better come up with an answer.

Yes, his FISA pander was a huge mistake.  Well, just for a bit of perspective:

What Russ Feingold Said:

"Having a Democratic president and particularly Barack Obama should allow us to change this mistake. Barack Obama believes in the Constitution. He's a constitutional scholar. I believe that he will have a better chance to look at these powers that have been given to the executive branch and even though that he will be running the executive branch, I think he will understand and help take the lead in fixing some of the worst provisions. So this is a huge setback and it would have been much better for Democrats to stand together and not let it happen in the first place `cause it's much harder to change it after the fact. But I do believe that Barack Obama is well positioned both in terms of his knowledge and his background, and his beliefs, to correct this. And so I do think that people have a right to be disappointed but I also think they have the right to hope for change on this issue in particular starting in January."

Al Giordano - The Sky Didn't Fall The Field 10 Jul 08

Is it always strictly necessary to place our ideologically correct positions above the clear opportunity for electoral victory?

his courtship of Hillary Clinton has dimished his image of being a different type of candidate

Which poll question asked about this?

Question 4c read "Some people say that since Barack Obama became the presumed Democratic nominee for president, he has changed on key policy issues to try to gain political advantage."

"Hello to President McCain"

That was so funny, milk went UP my nose. Thanks for the humor, man, I needed that - My 401K got so hammered today that I won't be able to retire until after I'm fossilized.

i thought only electoral polls mattered anyway.

What's it got to do with Clinton. She lost remember. He's on his own. So if there's a problem it's his nothing to do with her who btw stayed true to her principles and voted against FISA!!!!!!!!!!!

This poll is bogus.  They have 44% of the sample over 60 years old.  Also, the McBush winning over indies is also very telling.  I think Time has gone McTime.

Newsweek, to its credit, supplies all of the info for why one shouldn't trust its polls all that much.  Its sample is heavily skewed towards older voters (in this one 44% of respondents were over age 60).  Their model assumes that 1/3 of the electorate are indies (which is a larger fraction than in most).

Combines the two, and this movement of nine points (which, can we agree, is a large swing) seems to turn on the answers given by exactly 200 respondents (ie. the indies who were under 60 years old).

For a national poll, that's not a large number.  Their own MoE for indies is 6 points (and that pays no attention to the age issue--younger voters tend to support Obama, older voters tend to support McCain, the numbers expressing support for Obama should fluctuate more because of the small sample size).

Color me not convinced.  Since most other polls show Obama leading by 6%, and that number, conveniently, is right between the results of the last two Newsweek polls, my hunch is that's probably close to the correct number.

Definitely worth watching, though.  

How fun, we're back to the "ignore bad polls" Obama supporters.

This looks like a very tight election. The cash advantage we thought Obama would have is looking doubtful, he has muddied his message from the primary, and his poll lead won't survive Republicans returning home. Democrats appear to have so many structural advantages this year, but Obama is not benefiting from them. He continues to show the same weaknesses he had in the primary, and funding a NASCAR entrant isn't going to fix them.

If McCain ever gets his act together we will be in real trouble.

It seems that this poll only asked about Obama flip flopping and whether he was a Muslim or went to a Muslim school.

I didn't see ONE question asked about McCain.

For a short, completely unsubstantiated diary - using a Newsweek poll that did not even ask questions that would lead to using the poll as support for the statements made in the diary - this is one of the best concern wart's dust bunny collections assembled. Ever.

Remember the good old days when nay sayers (like yourself) said Obama would get his ass handed to him? That he was unelectable?

It lifts my spirits that you must now cherry pick ONE particularly volatile poll that shows the most narrow lead for Obama.

So again, thank you so much for posting this lovely morale booster. Keep up the great work.

And one last thing...

hang on...

it's coming...

AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHAHHAAHA

I'm interested in two things - one, a consistent lead, which we have, and two, a consistent showing of over 50% of the vote, which we don't.

Other than that, little blips up and down don't mean much.

What exactly is his "courtship" of Hillary Clinton?  And how would this affect his downward slide?  The only thing about his courtship of Hillary that would cause his poll numbers down, would be slip ups like the one the other night where he forgot why he was at the fundraiser. Things like this might lose support that he gained from Clinton supporters. Otherwise, I don't get your point.

on June 3?

He was the same guy he is now when I threw my support to him in February.

I don't know what Obama you're thinking of. I was thinking of the one who will get a hell of a lot done, but will have to compromise and sell out some leftist principles for the good of the country. Not this fictional Obama who will toe the line of the netroots.

I think the last poll was an outlier and this poll is just more in keeping with all the other polls.

My enthusiasm level for Obama has gone way down this week. Apparently the internet fundraising machine has slowed down as well so i don't think i'm alone.

I miss Primaries Obama.

When Obama true believers start telling us to believe the fantastic poll lead of 6% wow rather than this bad number of 3% then we know there's a problem. With every day that goes by it becomes clearer he needs Clinton more than she needs him. Ultimately he's going to go for her because it's a no brainer and without her it's massively increasing his chances of losing. Since she dropped out the whole air has gone out of this.